What are the strongest predictors of death in H. pylori–negative upper GI bleeding? :- Medznat
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Study reveals mortality predictors in H. pylori-negative upper GI bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding Upper gastrointestinal bleeding
Upper gastrointestinal bleeding Upper gastrointestinal bleeding

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Advanced age, encephalopathy, cardiovascular complications, and combined antiplatelet–anticoagulant therapy independently predict in-hospital mortality in H. pylori–negative, non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

As the epidemiology of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) continues to evolve, Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)–negative non-variceal bleeding increasingly represents a clinically complex population in which aging, comorbid illnesses, and antithrombotic therapy shape patient outcomes beyond the bleeding event itself. Recognizing this changing disease profile, the investigators evaluated the underlying causes, clinical characteristics, and independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in affected patients.

They reviewed the medical records of adults hospitalized with endoscopically confirmed H. pylori–negative non-variceal UGIB at a tertiary referral center. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medication exposure, and endoscopic findings were systematically evaluated, while multivariable regression analysis identified independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.

Among 285 hospitalized patients with H.pylori–negative non-variceal UGIB, multivariable analysis distinguished the clinical characteristics that independently influenced in-hospital mortality.

Key analysis:

  • The study population had a median age of 60 years, and 54% were men.
  • Antithrombotic exposure (28.8%) was substantially more frequent than nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) use (2.8%).
  • Erosive gastropathy (45%) represented the predominant endoscopic diagnosis, whereas peptic ulcers accounted for 12% of cases.
  • The overall in-hospital mortality rate was witnessed to be 5% (13/285 patients).
  • Age >60 years independently increased mortality risk (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.9).
  • Cardiovascular complications markedly elevated the likelihood of in-hospital death (aOR 7.8).
  • Encephalopathy emerged as the strongest mortality predictor (aOR 8.5).
  • Concurrent antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy was independently linked with higher risk of death (aOR 5.3).

The era of H. pylori–driven UGIB is giving way to a more complex clinical landscape shaped by aging, multimorbidity, and widespread antithrombotic use. This study highlights the requirement to look beyond the bleeding lesion itself and focus on the patient's overall clinical profile. Incorporating these mortality predictors into early risk assessment may help clinicians prioritize intensive monitoring and timely intervention.

Source:

Clinical and Experimental Gastroenterology

Article:

Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality in Helicobacter pylori–Negative, Non-Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Authors:

Giselle María Padilla Gutiérrez et al.

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