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About 13% of adults aged 18–65 years experience headache on any given day, and nearly half of these headaches are migraines.
A major global analysis suggests that headaches are even more common than previously recognized, with an estimated 641.9 million adults worldwide likely to experience a headache tomorrow.
The study, which pooled individual-level data from 38,512 participants across 15 countries, offers one of the most comprehensive snapshots yet of the day-to-day burden of headache disorders. Researchers used data from population-based surveys that employed the standardized HARDSHIP questionnaire, including the simple but revealing question: “Did you have a headache yesterday?” Among volunteers aged 18–65 years, 13.7% reported having a headache the previous day. Women were affected far more often than men, with headache reported by 17.1% of females compared with 9.7% of males.
The study population included 53.4% women, while 17.1% of participants came from low-income countries and 64.6% from lower-middle-income countries. The age distribution closely mirrored that of the global adult population. When researchers examined headache subtypes, migraine emerged as the leading culprit, affecting 6.0% of participants on the previous day. Tension-type headache (TTH) was reported by 4.1%, while probable medication-overuse headache (pMOH) affected 2.3%.
Economic disparities also appeared to influence headache burden. Adults living in low- and lower-middle-income countries experienced a slightly higher one-day headache prevalence of 13.9% compared with 12.4% among those in high- and upper-middle-income countries. One of the most notable findings was the gap between actual and recalled headache frequency. Based on participants' reported annual headache frequency, researchers predicted that only 10.9% would have a headache on a given day.
However, the observed prevalence was markedly higher at 13.7%. This discrepancy suggests that many people with migraine or TTH may underestimate how often headaches occur. The pattern differed for pMOH, where the predicted prevalence (3.1%) exceeded the observed prevalence (2.3%). After adjusting for age, sex, and country-income level, the researchers estimated a global one-day prevalence of 13.1% for any headache. Adjusted rates were 5.7% for migraine, 3.9% for TTH, and 2.4% for pMOH, while 1.0% of headaches remained unclassified.
These findings build on the researchers' earlier estimate that 65% of adults aged 18–65 years experience headache over a one-year period. The novel analysis yields a clearer picture of the daily impact of headache disorders and indicates that conventional surveys relying on long-term recall may underestimate their true frequency.
The authors conclude that, if tomorrow is an average day, roughly one in every eight adults worldwide aged 18–65 years will experience a headache, and nearly half of those headaches will be migraines—highlighting the immense and often underappreciated global burden of headache ailments.
The Journal of Headache and Pain
Over 600 million people aged 18–65 will have headache tomorrow: global 1-day prevalence and recall bias from a meta-analysis of individual participant data (N = 38,512) from the general populations of 15 countries
Andreas Kattem Husøy et al.
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