A clinical prediction study to predict recovery of acute low back pain

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A clinical prediction study to predict recovery of acute low back pain

Back pain, with restricted lower back movement and stiffness, is a common problem and affects almost everyone in their lifetime. Although it is not severe in most of the cases, it may persist for longer in few cases, affecting the overall quality of life. Most of the patients get to recover with minimal treatment, but there is substantial lack of consistency in its prognosis. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate the correct and consistent records.

Recently, it has been shown that the analysis of the probability of individual patient's recovery by key time points can be very valuable in building decisions regarding the type and extent of the treatment required for low back pain. This recovery prediction, if done after 1 week of initially seeking care, can provide a clinically more relevant and accurate results than the initial prediction.

Therefore, to check the probability of recovery 1-week after initially seeking care, a study was conducted at 1-week, 1-month and 3-months, after 1-week review with patients with LBP. The study included 1070 patients, with a pain score of ≥2. The primary outcome measure was the days needed to recover from pain. For evaluation, a multi-variable Cox regression model was used for which ten potential prognostic factors were considered. The final Cox's regression model comprised 5 factors (number of previous episodes, duration of current episode, the intensity of pain, depressive symptoms at 1-week and change in pain over 1-week initially seeking care). The model exhibited good discrimination (C=0.758) and calibration. Further, the recovery probability at 1-week, 1-month and 3-months after a one-week study was increased from 4% to 59%, 19% to 91% and 30% to 97%, respectively.

On account of whole study, it was thus found that it is possible to analyze the probability of recovery, 1-week initially seeking care at key time points in people who still suffer from acute LBP with the help of a multi-variable Cox regression model.


European Journal of Pain

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The original title of the article:

Predicting recovery in patients with acute low back pain: A Clinical Prediction Model


T. da Silva; P. Macaskill et al.

Exploratory, Acute Low back pain, Lower back, Clinical Prediction study
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